“Tied in a blanket with a rope” New Facts and New Analysis

I learned this week that Karen’s clothing and belongings were found bundled in a blanket that had been tied with a rope. It was found down a steep hillside from a logging landing and in such a position that it had to be carried to the spot it was found in. I also learned that the shoe was not in the bundle, but found in the area.

The open question I have now is whether Karen’s worn clothing, in particular her cut jeans, were inside the bundle or were those clothing items found, like the shoe, in the area. I’m going to work through some possibilities, what those add to the known facts and how it could change the analysis and the search location.

Possibility 1: Karen’s worn clothing is found inside the bundle. Analysis: This leads me to believe that the crime occurred elsewhere and the killer separated the body from the belongings and clothes, packaged up the possessions and dumped the items at Soda Fork. Implications: This level of organization would lead me to rule out Ackroyd as a suspect since he hasn’t demonstrated this level of organization in his other crimes. I would also lessen the probability of finding Karen at Soda Fork, and my potential search area now encompasses Linn County east of Lebanon. How does this fit with the other facts: While Rodney’s backpack was traced to Bend, there is no mention in the police reports regarding Karen’s luggage. If this had been a dump of her clothing, separate from the body, then why make an extra stop to dispose of Rodney’s clothing in a different location? It would make more sense, even for an organized killer, to make a single stop and disposal of the items in one location.

Possibility 2: Karen’s worn clothing is found in the area, similar to her shoe. Analysis: This indicates to me that the crime occurred at the Soda Fork location. Her worn clothing being found separate from the bundle indicates to me that in addition to leaving the body in that location, the killer also left her belongings. Implications: This still fits with Ackroyd’s MO and opportunity killer profile. Swamp Mountain Doe was found on the forest floor with a single shoe and her worn clothing, and her death has been attributed to Ackroyd by the LCSO. How does this fit with the other facts: This accounts for Karen’s luggage. Rodney’s backpack had value to pawn, and by pawning it in Deschutes County, it would be unlikely that it would be found and linked to a disappearance in Linn County. Karen may have made a hobo bundle to carry her belongings in, and this would be both of no value to pawn and highly incriminating to possess. It would make sense to leave the bundle at the location with the body. This still fits with the existing theory of the crime and better accounts for Rodneys’s belongings being in a separate location.

Comparing the two options for how Karen’s worn clothing was found, I believe that option 2 is more likely. It fits better with the other known facts, and doesn’t generate quite as many follow up questions as possibility 1. I am also open to being quite wrong on this belief and should new information develop, that will also be incorporated. The evidence still points to Soda Fork as being the likely location of Karen and Rodneys’ remains and I intend to continue focusing my search effort there.

In the newspaper article, it does mention that Lt. Martinak described the papers inside the bundle as being in good condition “as if they had not been very wet but may have been deposited some time after May 26.” Without knowing the exact location, what the overhead cover was like, what material the blanket was made from, how the papers were packed, and that’s a lot of variables to control for when looking at the historical weather data.

The historical monthly weather data for June to EOM October 1977 shows a typical dry summer, with light rain beginning intermittently in late September but staying fairly light on the precipitation through October. Without knowing the other variables listed above, I’m going to hold my assumption that the bundle was left at Soda Fork on May 26th.